Истории будущего

319. Sargent, Utopianism, 66, цитируется английский перевод 1833 г. сочинения католического священника СанДжермано.

320. О влиянии Уэллса см. Hensel, “H. G. Wells and the Drafting of a Universal Declaration of Human Rights”; также см. Wells, Rights of Man; or, What Are We Fighting For? 23.

321. Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population.

322. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, 1:117.

323. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth.

324. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 196. Фразу о коперникианской революции добавили по настоянию спонсоров Римского клуба.

325. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 24–25.

326. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 175.

327. “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, United Nations, 1992, https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/back ground_publications_htmlpdf/ application/pdf/ conveng.pdf.

328. 1992 World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity, July 16, 1992, Union of Concerned Scientists, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/1992-world-scientists-warning-humanity.

329. “The Future We Want”, United Nations General Assembly, September 11, 2012, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view &type=400&nr=733&menu=35.

330. “Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, United Nations General Assembly, October 21, 2015.

331. Randers, 2052, loc. 1319, Kindle.

332. Выступление Рамсфелда: https://archive.ph/20180320091111/http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636; обсуждение: Silver, Signal and the Noise, 420–421.

333. Raworth, Doughnut Economics, 124.

334. Taleb, The Black Swan.

335. Eldredge and Gould, “Punctuated Equilibria”.

336. Christian, Origin Story.

337. Kaku, Physics of the Future, 328ff.

338. Rosling and Rosling, Factfulness, 51.

339. Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, and Bernadeta Dadonaite, “Child and Infant Mortality”, Our World in Data, last updated November 2019, https://our-worldindata.org/child-mortality; Smil, Numbers Don’t Lie, 9.

340. Holmes, The Age of Wonder, 305ff.; Porter, Greatest Benefit, loc. 7145, Kindle.

341. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature; изложение доводов Пинкера: Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence: Edge Master Class 2011”, Edge, September 27, 2011, https://www.edge.org/conversation/mc2011-history-violence-pinker.

342. Schwab, Stakeholder Capitalism, 25.

343. Свежие данные: Max Roser, “Future Population Growth”, Our World in Data, от ноября 2019 г., https://ourworldin-data.org/future-population-growth; Ehrlich and Ehrlich, The Population Bomb.

344. Vollset et al., “Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios”.

345. Roser, “Fertility Rate: Children Born per Woman [World]”, Our World in Data, 2014; см. также версию от 2 декабря 2017 г.: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate.

346. Weart, “Development of the Concept of Dangerous Anthropogenic Climate Change”.

347. Riahi et al., “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”.

348. Allan et al., Climate Change 2021, 16–18.

349. Allan et al., Climate Change 2021, 36.

350. Bar-On, Phillips, and Milo, “Biomass Distribution on Earth”.

351. S. Diaz et al., IPBES (2019), 24.

352. The 2021 UNEP report, Making Peace with Nature.

353. Lovelock, Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth.

354. Rockström and Klum, Big World: Small Planet.

355. Raworth, Doughnut Economics, 47.

356. Ord, The Precipice, 24–26 и 90–102.

357. Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century

358. Scheidel, The Great Leveler, введение.

359. Scheidel, The Great Leveler.

360. Al-Khalili, What’s Next?; в этой книге рассматриваются актуальные технологические наработки.

361. Christian, “The Noösphere”.

362. Randers, 2052, loc. 670, Kindle.

363. Dator, A Noticer in Time, chap. 5, pt. 4, “The Four Generic Futures”.

364. Ord, The Precipice, 37, определение экзистенциальной катастрофы; 167, таблица возможных угроз.

365. Например, Greer, The Long Descent.

366. Greer, The Long Descent, 83.

367. Raskin, Journey to Earthland.

368. Sinclair and LaPlante, Lifespan.

369. Meadows et al., Limits to Growth, 171.

370. О трансгуманизме см. Grinin and Grinin, “Crossing the Threshold of Cyborgization”.

371. Schwab, Stakeholder Capitalism, 167.

Глава 9

372. Ord, The Precipice, 52.

373. Wells, The Outline of History, т. 2, гл. 41, ч. 4.

374. Wagar, Short History of the Future, Stableford and Langford, The Third Millennium.

375. Gates, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, гл. 4.

376. Kaku, Physics of the Future, 252.

377. Kaku, Physics of the Future, 246.

378. Kardashev, “Transmission of Information by Extra-Terrestrial Civilizations” и “On the Inevitability and the Possible Structures of Supercivilizations”.

379. Sagan, The Cosmic Connection, гл. 34.

380. См., например, Rorvig, How to Spot an Alien Megastructure.

381. Voros, “Big Futures”, 423; Kaku, Physics of the Future, 330.

382. Feynman, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom”.

383. John Smart, “Exponential Progress”, in Schroeter, After Shock, 499.

384. Drexler, Radical Abundance.

385. Russell, Human Compatible.

386. Kaku, Future of Humanity, 125.