Rogue Element

‘Jakarta believes East Timor’s departure has set the precedent for other disaffected provinces to follow. Throughout the archipelago there are racial, tribal and religious tensions all exacerbated by poverty. The general populace of Indonesia, considered moderate by Islamic standards, has been surprisingly tolerant of the fanatics and terrorists on the fringe of its society. You don’t have to walk far on any Indonesian street before you see someone in an “I love bin Laden” t-shirt. If I were to put my black hat on, I’d say Indonesia can only travel down one of three possible paths in the future. One, as I’ve said, the place Balkanises — fractures into smaller, bolshy states that pursue their own national interests. Two, religious fundamentalism takes hold. Three, a military dictatorship takes over the place. How long before one of these predictions comes to pass? ’ Griffin shrugged. ‘We know all this — none of it’s new. We’ve all become involved in endless debates about our largest neighbour to the north after the disaster in Bali. What’s the most likely path? I still believe it’s the dictatorship. Lord knows there have been plenty of precedents for it in the country’s past.

‘The government is now engaged in a delicate balancing act and we know that’s making the military nervous. And while I’m on the subject of the military, they’ve taken a hammering since the glory days under Soeharto came to an end. The government’s stance towards us over this incident could be interpreted as Jakarta’s sop to the military. Y’know, look tough, talk tough. Flex those independent muscles. Basically, unless we get concrete evidence to the contrary, I believe we should give the government the benefit of the doubt.’

‘And point the finger at…?’ Blight was intrigued.

‘The armed forces, or a faction within them?’ said Niven, taking his lead from Griffin’s logic.

‘Could be,’ said Griffin, nodding. ‘But again, I’d caution against jumping to conclusions. There’s so much going on up there it’s impossible to know where this has come from. The least likely place, and this is ironic, is that it’s the handiwork of religious fanatics.’

‘The people we’ve spent so much time and effort putting under the microscope?’ asked Blight.

‘Exactly.’

‘So we’ve set ourselves up for this sucker punch?’ Blight massaged his chin as if that part of his face had taken the blow.

‘I guess…’ said Griffin, frowning. ‘But again, I’d caution against jumping to conclusions till we know more.’

‘Hear, hear!’ said Sharpe.

‘I don’t think we can blame East Timor for this. I mean, let’s face it, our relationship with Indonesia’s never been exactly rosy,’ added Greenway.

Griffin and Blight both nodded.

‘I don’t buy any of this,’ said Sharpe, arms folded.

Blight appeared to be pondering the options. ‘So where the hell does all that leave us?’

‘I’m not sure, Bill, ’said Griffin. ‘If we announce publicly that Indonesia shot down the plane, all hell will break loose. There’ll be riots here and in Indonesia. You can guarantee there’ll be flat denials from the Indonesians and, without proof, demands for an apology from the rest of Asia. You just know how Malaysia will react. Add to that a march into Sulawesi?’ The ASIS chief left the question open but shook his head doubtfully.

‘Second that,’ said Sharpe.

The room was silent again. There seemed no way forward.

‘Prime Minister, it might seem like I’m jumping from pillar to post, but I’ve changed my mind,’ said Niven. ‘Phil’s right. We probably don’t have a military option. Yet.’

Sharpe eyed Niven suspiciously.

‘But I don’t think we should sit on our hands either,’ continued the CDF.

‘So what are you thinking?’ Blight hadn’t had too much to do with the air vice marshal since his appointment to the position of CDF. Niven came highly regarded, which was why Blight had handed him the job and, so far, he liked the man — he said what was on his mind.

‘We ready a small force, SAS. We brief and prep them for a black operation in Indonesia just in case we need to put people at that crash site in a hurry once it’s found. And we wait. There’s more to this, I’m sure of it, and we should be prepared.

‘It would also be prudent to cancel all leave and put the Ready Deployment Force in Townsville on alert. It might seem like an overreaction, but I’d start moving our air assets out of places like Williamtown, Pearce and Richmond, and send them to Darwin and Townsville.’

The PM scowled. He was not happy about how the Indonesians would read that.

‘Prime Minister, there’s just too much here we don’t understand and, frankly, that scares me,’ Niven said emphatically.

‘Okay.’ The PM massaged his temples. ‘I agree that we need hard evidence that a crime was committed before we confront the Indonesians. Intelligence assessments alone won’t do it for us. Griff, I hope your bloody hunch is right and the Indonesian government is in the dark about this, otherwise, Jesus Christ, I don’t want to think about where this will end. Anyone got anything else cheery to add?’

Silence.