Читаем The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable полностью

-—, 1993, “Chaos.” In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993.

Stigler, Stephen M.,1986,The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.

-, 2002,Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods.Cambridge,mass.: harvard university press.

Stiglitz, Joseph, 1994, Whither Socialism. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Strawson, Galen, 1994, Mental Reality. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

-, 2004, “Against Narrativity.” Ratio 17: 428-452.

Strogatz,S. H., 1994,Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, with Applications to Physics, Biology,Chemistry, and Engineering. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

Strogatz, Steven H., 2001, “Exploring Complex Networks.” Nature 410: 268-276.


-, 2003,Sync: How Order Emerges from Chaos in the Universe, Nature, and Daily Life.

New York: Hyperion.

Suantak, L., F. Bolger, and W. R. Ferrell, 1996, “The Hard-easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes67: 201-221.

Suddendorf, Thomas, 2006, “Enhanced: Foresight and Evolution of the Human Mind.” Science 312(5776): 1006-1007.

Sullivan, R., A. Timmermann, and H. White, 1999, “Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap.” Journal of Finance 54: 1647-1692.

Sunstein, Cass R.,2002,Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment.Cambridge: Cambridgeuniversity press.

Surowiecki, James, 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday.

Sushil, Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy 100(5): 992-1026.

Sutton, J., 1997, “Gibrat’s Legacy.” Journal of Economic Literature 35: 40-59.

Swanson, D. R., 1986a, “Fish Oil, Raynaud’s Syndrome and Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine30(1): 7-18.

-, 1986b, “Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Library Quarterly56: 103-118.

-, 19&7, “Two Medical Literatures That Are Logically but Not Bibliographically Connected.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science38: 228-233.

Swets, J. A., R. M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, 2000a, “Better Decisions Through Science.” Scientific American (October): 82-87.

-, 2000b, “Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions.” Psychogical Science

in the Public Interest1: 1-26.

Szenberg, Michael, éd., 1992, Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tabor, M.,1989,Chaos and Integrability in Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction.New York:wiley.

Taine, HippolyteAdolphe, 1868, 1905. Les philosophes’ classiques du XIXe siиcle en France,9иme éd. Paris: Hachette.

Taleb, N. N., 1997,Dynamic Hedging:ManagingVanilla and Exotic Options.New York: Wiley.

-,2004a, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.

New York: Random House.

-, 2004b, “These Extreme Exceptions of Commodity Derivatives.” In Helyette Geman,

Commodities and Commodity Derivatives.New York: Wiley.

-, 2004c, "Bleed or Blowup: What Does Empirical Psychology Tell Us About the Preference

for Negative Skewness?" Journal of Behavioral Finance 5(1): 2-7.

-, 2004d, “The Black Swan: Why Don’t We Learn That We Don’t Learn?” Paper presented

at the United States Department of Defense Highland Forum, Summer 2004.

-, 2004e, “Roots of Unfairness.” Literary Research/Recherche Littéraire 21(41-42): .

241-254.

-, 2004f, “On Skewness in Investment Choices.” Greenwich Roundtable Quarterly2.

-, 2005, "Fat Tails, Asymmetric Knowledge, and Decision Making: Essay in Honor of

Benoît Mandelbrot’s 80th Birthday." Technical paper series, Wilmott (March): 56-59.

-, 2006a, “Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus.” Foreword to Aaron Brown’s The Poker

Face of Wall Street.New York: Wiley.

Перейти на страницу:

Похожие книги

Советская внешняя разведка. 1920–1945 годы. История, структура и кадры
Советская внешняя разведка. 1920–1945 годы. История, структура и кадры

Когда в декабре 1920 года в структуре ВЧК был создано подразделение внешней разведки ИНО (Иностранный отдел), то организовывать разведывательную работу пришлось «с нуля». Несмотря на это к началу Второй мировой войны советская внешняя разведка была одной из мощнейших в мире и могла на равных конкурировать с признанными лидерами того времени – британской и германской.Впервые подробно и достоверно рассказано о большинстве операций советской внешней разведки с момента ее создания до начала «холодной войны». Биографии руководителей, кадровых сотрудников и ценных агентов. Структура центрального аппарата и резидентур за рубежом.В формате PDF A4 сохранен издательский макет книги.

Александр Иванович Колпакиди , Валентин Константинович Мзареулов

Военное дело / Документальная литература
Опасные советские вещи. Городские легенды и страхи в СССР
Опасные советские вещи. Городские легенды и страхи в СССР

Джинсы, зараженные вшами, личинки под кожей африканского гостя, портрет Мао Цзедуна, проступающий ночью на китайском ковре, свастики, скрытые в конструкции домов, жвачки с толченым стеклом — вот неполный список советских городских легенд об опасных вещах. Книга известных фольклористов и антропологов А. Архиповой (РАНХиГС, РГГУ, РЭШ) и А. Кирзюк (РАНГХиГС) — первое антропологическое и фольклористическое исследование, посвященное страхам советского человека. Многие из них нашли выражение в текстах и практиках, малопонятных нашему современнику: в 1930‐х на спичечном коробке люди выискивали профиль Троцкого, а в 1970‐е передавали слухи об отравленных американцами угощениях. В книге рассказывается, почему возникали такие страхи, как они превращались в слухи и городские легенды, как они влияли на поведение советских людей и порой порождали масштабные моральные паники. Исследование опирается на данные опросов, интервью, мемуары, дневники и архивные документы.

Александра Архипова , Анна Кирзюк

Документальная литература / Культурология
Chieftains
Chieftains

During the late 1970s and early 80s tension in Europe, between east and west, had grown until it appeared that war was virtually unavoidable. Soviet armies massed behind the 'Iron Curtain' that stretched from the Baltic to the Black Sea.In the west, Allied forces, British, American, and armies from virtually all the western countries, raised the levels of their training and readiness. A senior British army officer, General Sir John Hackett, had written a book of the likely strategies of the Allied forces if a war actually took place and, shortly after its publication, he suggested to his publisher Futura that it might be interesting to produce a novel based on the Third World War but from the point of view of the soldier on the ground.Bob Forrest-Webb, an author and ex-serviceman who had written several best-selling novels, was commissioned to write the book. As modern warfare tends to be extremely mobile, and as a worldwide event would surely include the threat of atomic weapons, it was decided that the book would mainly feature the armoured divisions already stationed in Germany facing the growing number of Soviet tanks and armoured artillery.With the assistance of the Ministry of Defence, Forrest-Webb undertook extensive research that included visits to various armoured regiments in the UK and Germany, and a large number of interviews with veteran members of the Armoured Corps, men who had experienced actual battle conditions in their vehicles from mined D-Day beaches under heavy fire, to warfare in more recent conflicts.It helped that Forrest-Webb's father-in-law, Bill Waterson, was an ex-Armoured Corps man with thirty years of service; including six years of war combat experience. He's still remembered at Bovington, Dorset, still an Armoured Corps base, and also home to the best tank museum in the world.Forrest-Webb believes in realism; realism in speech, and in action. The characters in his book behave as the men in actual tanks and in actual combat behave. You can smell the oil fumes and the sweat and gun-smoke in his writing. Armour is the spearhead of the army; it has to be hard, and sharp. The book is reputed to be the best novel ever written about tank warfare and is being re-published because that's what the guys in the tanks today have requested. When first published, the colonel of one of the armoured regiments stationed in Germany gave a copy to Princess Anne when she visited their base. When read by General Sir John Hackett, he stated: "A dramatic and authentic account", and that's what 'Chieftains' is.

Bob Forrest-Webb

Документальная литература