The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

As a skeptical empiricist, I do not want to be the turkey, so I do not want to focus solely on specific organs in the brain, since we do not observe brain functions very well. Some people try to identify what are called the neural correlates of, say, decision making, or more aggressively the neural “substrates” of, say, memory. The brain might be more complicated machinery than we think; its anatomy has fooled us repeatedly in the past. We can, however, assess regularities by running precise and thorough experiments on how people react under certain conditions, and keep a tally of what we see.

For an example that justifies skepticism about unconditional reliance on neurobiology, and vindicates the ideas of the empirical school of medicine to which Sextus belonged, let’s consider the intelligence of birds. I kept reading in various texts that the cortex is where animals do their “thinking,” and that the creatures with the largest cortex have the highest intelligence—we humans have the largest cortex, followed by bank executives, dolphins, and our cousins the apes. Well, it turns out that some birds, such as parrots, have a high level of intelligence, equivalent to that of dolphins, but that the intelligence of birds correlates with the size of another part of the brain, called the hyperstriatum. So neurobiology with its attribute of “hard science” can sometimes (though not always) fool you into a Platonified, reductive statement. I am amazed that the “empirics,” skeptical about links between anatomy and function, had such insight—no wonder their school played a very small part in intellectual history. As a skeptical empiricist I prefer the experiments of empirical psychology to the theories-based MRI scans of neurobiologists, even if the former appear less “scientific” to the public.

How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy

I’ll conclude by saying that our misunderstanding of the Black Swan can be largely attributed to our using System 1, i.e., narratives, and the sensational—as well as the emotional—which imposes on us a wrong map of the likelihood of events. On a day-to-day basis, we are not introspective enough to realize that we understand what is going on a little less than warranted from a dispassionate observation of our experiences. We also tend to forget about the notion of Black Swans immediately after one occurs—since they are too abstract for us—focusing, rather, on the precise and vivid events that easily come to our minds. We do worry about Black Swans, just the wrong ones.

Let me bring Mediocristan into this. In Mediocristan, narratives seem to work—the past is likely to yield to our inquisition. But not in Extremistan, where you do not have repetition, and where you need to remain suspicious of the sneaky past and avoid the easy and obvious narrative.

Given that I have lived largely deprived of information, I’ve often felt that I inhabit a different planet than my peers, which can sometimes be extremely painful. It’s like they have a virus controlling their brains that prevents them from seeing things going forward—the Black Swan around the corner.

The way to avoid the ills of the narrative fallacy is to favor experimentation over storytelling, experience over history, and clinical knowledge over theories. Certainly the newspaper cannot perform an experiment, but it can choose one report over another—there is plenty of empirical research to present and interpret from—as I am doing in this book. Being empirical does not mean running a laboratory in one’s basement: it is just a mind-set that favors a certain class of knowledge over others. I do not forbid myself from using the word cause, but the causes I discuss are either bold speculations (presented as such) or the result of experiments, not stories.

Another approach is to predict and keep a tally of the predictions.

Finally, there may be a way to use a narrative—but for a good purpose. Only a diamond can cut a diamond; we can use our ability to convince with a story that conveys the right message—what storytellers seem to do.

So far we have discussed two internal mechanisms behind our blindness to Black Swans, the confirmation bias and the narrative fallacy. The next chapters will look into an external mechanism: a defect in the way we receive and interpret recorded events, and a defect in the way we act on them.

Chapter Seven: LIVING IN THE ANTECHAMBER OF HOPE

How to avoid watercoolers—Select your brother-in-law—Yevgenia’s favorite book—What deserts can and cannot deliver—On the avoidance of hope—El desierto de los tártaros—The virtues of slow motion