Fear: Trump in the White House

The others were silent and only seemed to be encouraging Trump. Porter was appalled that the president was even considering a preemptive withdrawal from NAFTA. The trade agreement had been the foundation of economic and national security in North America for more than two decades. The agreement lifted tariffs between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Annual trade among the three was more than $1 trillion. U.S. trade each with Canada and Mexico was almost as great as U.S. trade with China, the largest trading partner.

“We need to have a process to make sure that we do this in proper order, that we’ve thought through these things.” Porter gestured toward Pence, Ross, Kushner and Navarro. “It’s great that these people are here, but Gary Cohn’s not here. Steve Mnuchin’s not here. I understand you want to move fast,” but we have to slow it down.

“I don’t care about any of this stuff,” Trump said. “I want it on my desk on Friday.”

Porter went to see McMaster to enlist his support. McMaster had not been very involved in the trade discussion but said he agreed that withdrawal from NAFTA would be a national security nightmare, and an unnecessary one. It would rattle the allies. I’m on board, he promised.

An emergency meeting was called with the relevant cabinet secretaries and senior advisers in the Roosevelt Room the next day. The fuse was lit. It looked like they had only a day or two before Trump would sign.

As Navarro pushed for withdrawal, Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly and others said a perceived threat that the United States might terminate was good leverage, but actually doing it would be catastrophic. The United States would be shooting itself in the foot. The ripple effects would be huge. It would roil the financial markets and lead to instant retaliation. Trading partners around the world would wonder if they were next.

After the meeting broke up, on his way to the Oval Office to go over the documents that Trump wanted prepared, Porter stopped Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who had just assumed office. Perdue was a former Republican governor of Georgia, the first from his party since Reconstruction.

“Sonny,” Porter said, “why don’t you come in?” Wilbur Ross joined them in the Oval Office.

“NAFTA has been a huge boon for American ag interests,” Perdue told Trump. “We export $39 billion a year to Mexico and Canada. We wouldn’t have markets for these products otherwise. The people who stand to lose the most if we withdraw from NAFTA are your base, the Trump supporters.”

Perdue showed Trump a map of the United States that indicated the states and counties where agriculture and manufacturing losses would be hit hardest. Many were places that had voted for Trump.

“It’s not just your base,” Perdue said. “It’s your base in states that are important presidential swing states. So you just can’t do this.”

“Yeah,” Trump said, “but they’re screwing us, and we’ve got to do something.”

The president finally decided they should amp up the public rhetoric and threat, but not actually send a 180-day notice.

Jared passed word to Porter. “The president’s agreed not to withdraw for now.”

Porter knew that everything with Trump was provisional, but he was surprised how close they had come to the edge. And it was not over.

Peter Navarro slipped into the Oval Office for an ad hoc, unscheduled meeting with the president.

“The only thing we’ve done is withdraw from TPP,” the president said, referring to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. “Why haven’t we done anything else on trade?”

“The staff secretary process is holding all this stuff up,” Navarro said.

“Madeleine,” Trump called to his assistant, Madeleine Westerhout. “Get Rob up here right now.”

Porter ran up the stairs to the Oval Office.

“What the fuck are you stalling for?” Trump said to Porter. “Why aren’t we getting this done? Do your job. It’s tap, tap, tap. You’re just tapping me along. I want to do this.”

The president was serious again. Porter drafted a 180-day notification letter to be signed by Trump that the United States would withdraw from NAFTA.

Porter was more and more convinced that it could trigger an economic and foreign relations crisis with Canada and Mexico. He went to see Cohn.

“I can stop this,” Cohn said to Porter. “I’ll just take the paper off his desk before I leave.” And he later took it. “If he’s going to sign it, he’s going to need another piece of paper.”

“We’ll slow-walk that one too,” Porter promised.

Cohn knew, of course, that the president could easily order another copy, but if the paper was not sitting in front of him, he’d likely forget it. If it was out of sight, it was out of mind.