Russia. A History

As Putin’s second term drew to a close, with prosperity at home and Putin’s popularity at an all-time high, his supporters proposed to amend the constitutional limit of two consecutive terms in the presidency. However, Putin himself rejected that proposal and instead promoted the candidacy of his deputy prime minister, Dmitrii Medvedev. Like Putin, Medvedev came from St Petersburg, had a law degree (he even taught Roman civil law at St Petersburg University), and had worked for that city’s liberal mayor Sobchak in the early 1990s. In 1999 Putin appointed Medvedev deputy head of the governmental administration, next made him deputy head of the presidential administration, and then promoted him to be its director in 2003. At one point in 2000 Medvedev also served as chairman of the board of directors of Gazprom, the state’s natural gas monopoly. In 2005 Putin designated Medvedev first deputy prime minister, with responsibility for health care, demography, agriculture, and education, thereby giving him visibility in high-profile issues. Despite conjecture about Medvedev’s possible liberalism, during the election campaign he unequivocally embraced Putin’s ideal of a strong ‘vertical’ authority: ‘I am deeply convinced that, if Russia turns into a parliamentary republic, it will soon cease to exist. What it needs is a strong presidential authority. These lands were brought together over centuries, and it is simply impossible to govern them in any other way.’

Medvedev held an insuperable advantage in the presidential campaign. He not only had Putin’s public support but quickly announced that he would appoint the popular Putin as prime minister, ensuring that Putin and his policies would remain in place. Indeed, the pair campaigned as a team under the slogan ‘Together we shall win.’ The opposition, divided and weak, deprived of the state-controlled mass media, had little prospect of victory. Western observers questioned the legitimacy of the election; the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (which routinely monitors elections) declined to participate, citing ‘severe restrictions on its observers by the Russian government’. Those who did come to observe reported a ‘fair but unequal election’. One study found that Medvedev had six times more coverage than his rivals; some oppositionists claimed forged election protocols. Few, however, doubt that Medvedev won a landslide victory, with 71.3 per cent of the vote against 18.0 per cent and 9.5 per cent for the next two candidates.

With Medvedev’s election and installation as president in May, Putin became prime minister. The new government enjoyed popularity and power: although the two were often described as a ‘tandem’, Putin unquestionably was a power unto himself. Some of his popularity even rubbed off on the ‘government’, which traditionally had extremely low approval ratings, but now saw its approval shoot up to 60 per cent, with still higher ratings for Medvedev and Putin.

The post-Putin ‘tandem’ continued Putin’s foreign and domestic policies. In foreign policy Russia continued to oppose the placement of NMD facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic; failing to persuade the Bush administration to reconsider, Moscow remained hopeful that the new government of Barak Obama would be prepared to compromise. Moscow did succeed in persuading NATO to delay plans to admit Ukraine and Georgia, despite strong pressure from the American government. The military conflict with Georgia in August 2008 exacerbated tensions, but neither the United States nor its European allies pressed their demands that Russia withdraw its forces and recognize Georgia’s sovereignty over the breakaway regions. The Medvedev presidency also reaffirmed Putin’s domestic policies in a long-term plan called ‘Strategy for 2020’, which was drafted in June 2008 and outlined goals and policies for the next dozen years. The plan envisioned a fivefold increase in wages, threefold increase in housing construction, doubling in research and development, and a demographic transformation (with the population growing to 145 million and life expectancy rising from 65 to 70). Such optimistic projections derived largely from the high rate of economic growth in the first months of 2008; buoyed by an investment boom, in the first quarter of 2008 the GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent, among the highest in all the Putin years. The future could hardly have looked brighter when the price of oil reached $147 a barrel in July 2008. At that point, Russia seemed clearly poised for years of continuous prosperity and power.

From Global Boom to Global Recession