The Day We Lost the H-Bomb: Cold War, Hot Nukes, and the Worst Nuclear Weapons Disaster in History

Soon, however, Guest began to see the value of his new addition. Richardson, working with the grid overlay of the search area, assigned each square a “search effectiveness probability” (or “SEP”) number between 0 and 1. A low number, close to 0, meant that if the bomb lay in that square, searchers probably wouldn't have found it yet, either because they hadn't searched there or because they hadn't used the proper tools. A higher number, such as.95 or.98, meant that if the bomb rested in that area, the searchers probably would have found it by now. The goal was to get each square on the grid from a low number to a higher one.

Some on the task force had doubts about Richardson's system. After all, the information he used to make calculations was vague. Nobody could say for sure when Alvin or Aluminaut or OBSS had

“covered” a particular area, because their navigation accuracy and the underwater terrain remained largely unknown. But Richardson had equations to cover these uncertainties. Every night, he crunched numbers using a Frieden calculator — a mechanical adding machine the size of a cash register — in the Boston's accounting office. Because the office was busy during the day, Richardson made all his calculations from about 11 p.m. to 3 a.m., the chug-chug-chug of the calculator keeping him company. At eight every morning, he presented his new chart to Guest at the admiral's daily briefing.

Guest grew to love Richardson's search effectiveness probability chart. Like all salvage missions, the search for the missing bomb was a succession of failures, one day after another of hard work, with nothing to show for it. Richardson's ever-changing numbers were the only tangible sign of progress. “It's important psychologically to have something that shows that you're actually achieving something. And SEP served that purpose,” said Richardson. “It was kind of like the thermometer on the United Fund chart. It keeps going up and up.”

That is to say, the numbers in certain squares kept going up and up; namely, those searched by Red Moody's inshore divers — probably the only searchers on Task Force 65 properly trained and equipped to do their job. By February 17, they had thoroughly scanned the water from the beach out to eighty feet deep. “He had guys swimming along the shore that were actually looking at the bottom with their eyes,” recalled Richardson. “So I'd always have these very high numbers for Red, like over ninety percent.” The numbers cheered Admiral Guest, not only because they showed progress but because he could then tease Red Moody, the towering, muscular diver, about intimidating the skinny mathematician into fixing his stats.

Deep water, however, was another story. With Alvin, Aluminaut

, and OBSS struggling, the numbers in the deepwater boxes remained stubbornly close to zero. At times, Guest moved the submersibles inshore, probably to be able to check off a few more boxes on Richardson's chart. The submersible crews, with no understanding of the admiral's motivations, were greatly annoyed by these seemingly arbitrary moves. But the admiral didn't care, because he was greatly annoyed by the submersibles.

By the time Alvin and Aluminaut had been in Spain for a few weeks, specific grievances began to emerge. During a dive on level terrain, Aluminaut veered off her back-and-forth sweep pattern to examine what appeared to be a piece of airplane wreckage. The crew took photos and presented them to Guest at a meeting on the flagship. Instead of being congratulated on the find, as he expected, Art Markel received a rebuke. “What are you doing, going out of the area?” demanded Guest. “I think I'll have to send you back to the States, because you don't know how to take orders.” Markel, proud of his work and his ship, was furious.

The Alvin crew had its own problems with the admiral. The high seas had led to several close calls for the little sub. On February 23, the waves rose too high for the crew to maneuver Alvin into the well deck of the Fort Smiling, so the Navy ship used its crane to lift Alvin

over the side. It was a risky maneuver, dangling the fragile sub close to the side of the ship, and Earl Hays did not want to repeat it. He would not risk Alvin or her crew by diving in rough weather again and sent a message to the flagship stating so.

Soon after, Hays attended a briefing on the flagship. Guest told the scientist that he wanted Alvin to dive by 2 p.m. the following day. Knowing Alvin would dive only if the weather permitted, Hays replied, “Maybe I will, maybe I won't.” Guest, taken aback by the scientist's insolence, asked what he meant. Hays, equally insulted by Guest's demand, replied, “If you're going to give me orders like that, Admiral, I'm going to take Alvin and go home.” With that, Guest threw Hays out of the room.