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We have revisited our forecasts and assumptions for Aeroflot following publication of its 9MO3 unaudited IAS results and full-year 2003 operating data, which demonstrated a higher than expected increase in passenger and cargo turnover, and a higher load factors. We have raised our annual forecasts for Aeroflot’s passenger traffic for 2004—2010 by 2% on average, and we increased our estimates for average international and domestic passenger yields by 0.1 US cents. We have made adjustments to our forecast of the company’s operating costs; specifically, we have reduced our projections for depreciation and personnel.

Our expectation for 2004E EBITDA growth is 22%, and our EBITDA forecast is $296 million (EBITDA margin 16.7%). We expect Aeroflot’s earnings to reach $ 140—150 million, up 22—30% on expected net income of $114 million in 2003.

Price Performance

Aeroflot has outperformed the RTS by 24% over the past 12 months. In the past three months the stock price has gained around 43% on the back of positive changes in the company’s Board of Directors (with three representatives of NRB being elected to the board), positive operating results for 1H03 and 9M03, and the foreign fleet upgrade moving in line with schedule.

Valuation

Aeroflot is presently the best valued among its GEM peers. Despite SARS and the Iraq war, it has sustained stable, though moderate, operational growth in 2003. However, these positives are not yet fully reflected in its valuations.

Aeroflot shares deserve to be traded at, on average, 30—40% discounts to GEM peers on future P/E and EV/EBITDA due to company specific risks. Currently, the discounts are much wider leaving room for some 15—20% price upside.

Elsewhere, Lan Chile and Thai Airways are being offered as buying opportunities to equity investors. Presently, both airlines are valued higher than Aeroflot. Thai Airways is considered to be a play that provides exposure to the unwinding Thai economy and the expected increase in tourism in the region. We argue that SARS and chicken flu are likely to make South-Asian destinations, including Thailand, less attractive, at least in the near future.

Lan Chile is considered to be attractive based on the recovery in the local and international economy, a stable peso, which should boost passenger traffic and import, and its international expansion strategy. We consider Aeroflot close to Lan Chile in terms of high attractiveness as an investment opportunity. Different brokers suggest 14—25% upside for Lan Chile shares, which again underscores our bullish call on Aeroflot. Lan Chile is expected to increase its traffic by 2.6% in 2004, which is significantly lower than Aeroflot’s projected traffic increase of 11.2% in 2004.

Overall, we do not believe that Aeroflot’s discounts to GEM and DM peers are justified by the expected growth rates of relative air transportation markets. Indeed, the Chinese air transport is expected to grow at the fastest rate in 2003—2022 (CAGR 8%), according to Boeing forecasts, while it expects the North American market to grow by 4.1%, the Latin American by 7.3%, and the European by 4.5%. We forecast that the Russian air transport industry will grow by 7.4% (CAGR 2003—2022), which is on a par with the expected Latin American growth and only slightly below the expected Chinese growth. Therefore, Aeroflot deserves to be valued at least on a par with Lan Chile and Thai Airways, i.e. to trade 20—40% higher than it presently trades.

At out target price of $ 1,0, Aeroflot would still trade at significant discounts to GEM and DM peers, which underscores the attractiveness of Aeroflot shares at current price levels and leaves room for further stock price appreciation.

Enterprise Value Compared

We compared Aeroflot with GEM and DM peers with EV below $4 billion. Aeroflot’s EV is close in size to Hainan Airlines, Lan Chile, Malaysian Airlines and Finnair.

Market data shows that investors value Aeroflot below the average of 7.0 EV/EBITDA 2004E at which the selected group of airlines trade.

At the same time, we note positively that Aeroflot operates at EBITDA margin of 16%, which is close to the average for the group of selected companies. It is worth noting that DM airlines operate, on average, at a 9% EBITDA margin, while GEM peers enjoy a 20% average.

Future Earnings Compared

Equity investors value the future earnings of the main Asian airlines higher than, or on a par with, those of the European majors. This is not surprising given the booming emerging Asian economies and moderate economic growth of the Euro-zone countries.

Aeroflot’s future earnings are valued the lowest among global peers, on a par with KLM and Thai Airlines. The fact that Aeroflot’s future earnings are presently valued 56% below the GEM average underscores the attractiveness of the stock and our Buy take on it.

ROCE