Отмененный проект

Krantz, David H., R. Duncan Luce, Patrick Suppes, and Amos Tversky. Foundations of Measurement–Vol. I: Additive and Polynomial Representations; Vol. II: Geometrical, Threshold, and Probabilistic Representations; Vol III: Representation, Axiomatization, and Invariance. San Diego and London: Academic Press, 1971–90; repr., Mineola, NY: Dover, 2007.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 105–10.

Глава 6. Правила мышления

Glanz, James, and Eric Lipton. “The Height of Ambition,” New York Times Magazine, September 8, 2002.

Goldberg, Lewis R. “Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments,” American Psychologist 23, no. 7 (1968): 483–96.

–. “Man versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences.” Psychological Bulletin 73, no. 6 (1970): 422–32.

Hoffman, Paul J. “The Paramorphic Representation of Clinical Judgment.” Psychological Bulletin 57, no. 2 (1960): 116–31.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness.” Cognitive Psychology 3 (1972): 430–54.

Meehl, Paul E. “Causes and Effects of My Disturbing Little Book.” Journal of Personality Assessment 50, no. 3 (1986): 370–75.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (1973): 207–32.

Глава 7. Правила предсказаний

Fischhoff, Baruch. “An Early History of Hindsight Research.” Social Cognition 25, no. 1 (2007): 10–13.

Howard, R. A., J. E. Matheeon, and D. W. North. “The Decision to Seed Hurricanes.” Science 176 (1972): 1191–1202. http//www.warnernorth.net/hurricanes.pdf.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80, no. 4 (1973): 237–51.

Meehl, Paul E. “Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences.” In Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers, edited by Paul E. Meehl, 225–302. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1973.

Глава 8. Вот и слава пришла

Redelmeier, Donald A., Joel Katz, and Daniel Kahneman. “Memories of Colonoscopy: A Randomized Trial,” Pain 104, nos. 1–2 (2003): 187–94.

Redelmeier, Donald A., and Amos Tversky. “Discrepancy between Medical Decisions for Individual Patients and for Groups.” New England Journal of Medicine 322 (1990): 1162–64.

–. Letter to the editor. New England Journal of Medicine 323 (1990): 923. http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdfyi0.1056/NEJM199009273231320.

–. “On the Belief That Arthritis Pain Is Related to the Weather.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93, no. 7 (1996): 2895–96. http//www.pnas.org/content/93/7/2895.full.pdf.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.

Глава 9. Рождение боевых психологов

Allais, Maurice. “Le Comportement de l'homme ration nel devant le risque: critique des postulate et axiomes de lecole americaine.” Econometrica

21, no. 4 (1953): 503–46. English summary: httpstfgoo.gl/cUvOVb.

Bernoulli, Daniel. “Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis,” Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae, Tomus V [Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in Petersburg, Vol. V], 1738, 175–92. Dr. Louise Sommer of American University did apparently the first translation into English: for Econometrica 22, no. 1 (1954): 23–36. See also Savage (1954) and Coombs, Dawes, and Tversky (1970).

Coombs, Clyde H., Robyn M. Dawes, and Amos Tversky. Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1970.

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011. The Jack and Jill scenario in chapter 9 of the present book is from p. 275 of the hardcover edition.

von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944; 2nd ed., 1947.

Savage, Leonard J. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Wiley, 1954.

Глава 10. Эффект изоляции